Raynauld Says Trudeau Knows He Isn’t The Right Leader for Canada Anymore

While some people were shocked by Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Canada’s prime minister, Communication Studies Associate Professor Vincent Raynauld was not surprised.

“The political landscape in Canada has significantly changed [over] the last 10 years,” said Raynauld. “From a public image perspective, from an economic, and an international perspective. He was no longer the person for the moment, essentially.”

Trudeau said Canada’s Parliament will be suspended until March 24 while a new leader is chosen.

Raynauld, a Canadian citizen and political scientist, said the 53-year-old Trudeau, who’s been in power for almost 10 years, could no longer present himself as the young upstart, progressive candidate. Pierre Marcel Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, is 45, making him seem to many as the new fresh voice.

The Conservative Party is also more aligned with a global conservative movement.

“Progressive politics, whether you like it or not, have lost momentum internationally,” said Raynauld, adding that Trudeau was plagued by a variety of scandals as entrenched leaders often face. “I think that overcoming a negativity around him was getting increasingly hard.”

But as public opinion about politicians goes, the average person uses the cost of everyday items like eggs and milk as an economic barometer, and Canadian food prices are outpacing general inflation.  

“The economic situation in Canada is not going well. Access to affordable housing is extremely difficult in Canada,” said Raynauld. “Economy always plays a big role. It was a big role in Kamala Harris’ defeat to Donald Trump. Trudeau is dealing with a dire economic situation, and Canadians are looking for some economic relief.”

The Trump Factor

Raynauld said social media played in important role in Trudeau’s drop in popularity, as a lot of narratives wouldn’t be discussed if social media didn’t exist.

“In the past few weeks, [President-elect Donald] Trump posted calling him ‘Governor Trudeau’. That didn’t help,” said Raynauld. “Trudeau ran to Mar-a-Lago to have dinner with Trump. A lot of people saw a leader that wasn’t able to handle Trump.”

Trump has also said he wants the U.S. to make Canada the 51^st state.

“Whether you like it or not, the U.S. is the biggest trading partner of Canada. Since Trump was elected, [Canada] is looking for someone to stand up to Trump,” said Raynauld. “[Poilievre] has been framing himself as tough and ready to stand up to Trump and form better relations with him than Trudeau.”

Was Trudeau’s Resignation Inevitable?

“Any type of political leader has a shelf life. The Trudeau who was elected in 2015 is not the same Trudeau you have today. His image has changed significantly,” said Raynauld. “Especially after the pandemic. The pandemic was hard on a lot of leaders. Trudeau was not able to renew his message and image enough to seem as the person for the moment.”

Trudeau tried to relate and show solidarity with Canadians during the pandemic by among other things, growing a beard. But his latest attempt to appeal to voters, was to actually suspend sales tax for a while in Canada, and that fell flat, says Raynauld.

Tracking Trudeau’s waning popularity was also seen in his own party. Raynauld said in a parliamentary system such as Canada’s, it is rare for party members to outwardly criticize their party’s leader. But some elected members of his Liberal Party started to speak up against Trudeau.

“This is something very rare in Canadian politics. You saw a growing number of people in his party expressing dissatisfaction with him. People coming out against him is very hard for a prime minister to overcome,” said Raynauld.

For Better or Worse?

Raynauld said Trudeau’s resignation is a good thing for the Liberal Party, so it can find a leader more in stride with today’s political atmosphere.

“But it also puts Canada in a precarious situation with a new administration coming into the U.S., our biggest trader. We’ve got a parliament on pause, with a leader stripped of his leadership,” said Raynauld. “Who will be leading the charge and standing up to the United States as they ask for Canada to be included in the U.S. or to tariffs? Who emerges as the spokesperson of Canada?”

Raynauld said that along with Poilievre, other possible leaders include the Premier of Alberta and leader of the United Conservative Party Danielle Smith, and the Premier of Ontario and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party Doug Ford.

But it looks like with the schedule of elections, Canada won’t have a new prime minister installed until May.

“That is a lengthy time without having a strong leader in place to push back more on an adversarial relationship with the U.S. than Trudeau has with [President Joe] Biden,” said Raynauld.