Assistant Professor of Communication Studies Spencer Kimball was one of eight experts asked by Vox to weigh in on the Ohio special election and what it might mean for Democrats in the midterms. Republican Troy Balderson took just 50.1 percent of the vote in the reliably red district, barely edging out Democrat Danny O’Connor, who pulled in 49.3 percent. The district backed President Donald Trump by 11 points in 2016.
Kimball, Emerson Polling analyst, said a higher percentage of OH-12 Democratic voters than expected came out vote, a trend also seen in PA-18, where Democrats were more likely to vote for their candidate than Republicans were for theirs. This trend was the opposite of what happened in 2016, when Democrats saw more “melt” from their base, Kimball said. And in the Ohio special election, independent voters were breaking for the Democrat nearly 2 to 1.
I think a blue wave is coming in the governor and US House races, but I am not sure if it will be strong enough for Democrats to take the Senate and expect the Republicans to maintain control of the upper chamber.
Overall, the eight analysts agreed that Democrats would see gains in November, but differed over how big those gains would be.