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Emerson e-Poll: Ariz. Voters Dead Even on Kavanaugh Nomination; Democrats Lead in US Senate Race, Republicans Lead in Gov Race

A new Emerson College e-poll finds that voters in the state of Arizona are split on President Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court – Judge Brett Kavanaugh. The poll finds 44% of Arizona voters believe the Senate should approve Kavanaugh, and 44% who believe that the Senate should not approve his appointment. The e-poll was conducted Sept 19-21, registered voters with a +/-4.4%.

As expected there is large partisan divide with 81% of Republicans supporting the nomination while 74% of Democrats oppose it.  Among Independents 49% oppose and 37% support the nomination.

In the race to replace Republican Senator Jeff Flake, who is not seeking re-election, Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema leads her Republican opponent Martha McSally 45% to 39%.

Voters gave a 40% approval and 32% disapproval for the job Doug Ducey is doing as Governor, as such he faces a tough election against Democratic challenger David Garcia. When asked who they would vote for if the election for Governor were held today, 42% of Arizona voters would vote for the incumbent Ducey, while 38% would vote for Garcia.

Arizona voters also approve of Governor Ducey’s decision to appoint Jon Kyl to fill the late John McCain’s vacant Senate seat:  by a margin of 51% to 18%.

President Trump has a 42% approval rating, as compared to 49% who disapprove of the President’s performance. When asked if voters would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who would vote to impeach President Trump, 40% were more likely and 38% were less likely.  Voters were also almost evenly split on building a border wall between the United States and Mexico – 46% say no to the wall, while 45% say yes.

On the issues, 71% of voters believe the level of funding for local education is not enough; 16% say it is just right, and 7% say there is too much funding.  Regarding a ballot initiative mandating 50% renewable energy by 2030 – 50% of Arizona voters support that initiative, as to 28% in opposition.

In a generic ballot test question, voters are split with 45% supporting the Democratic candidate and 42% supporting Republican candidates.


The Arizona Emerson College e-Poll was conducted on September 19-21, 2018 under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=650 with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.4 percentage points. The data was weighted by gender, ethnicity, age, party affiliation, congressional district, and 2016 voter turnout. It is important to remember that subsets based on congressional district, gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=325) and an online panel proved by Survey Sampling International Inc. (n=325).

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