Podcast Analysis: https://bit.ly/2OWltLP
In Nevada, US Senator Dean Heller polls at (R) 48%, US Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) is at 41% and 8% are undecided. In the Governor race, Adam Laxalt is at (R) 46%, Steve Sisolak (D) 41% with 11% undecided. The statewide poll was of likely voters, Oct 10-12, n=625, +/-4.2%.
Both US Senate candidates in Nevada are polarizing figures: Rosen holds a 45% unfavorable/44% favorable rating, while Heller stands at 46% unfavorable and 42% favorable rating. Rosen’s support comes from younger voters 18-34, where she leads Heller 59% to 30%.
In the Governor’s race, undecided voters are breaking for Sisolak 62% to 38%, which suggest the race may tighten from its current 5 point margin.
The e-Poll also focused on US Congressional races in Nevada. (Remember these subsets carry with them larger margins of error.) Here are the results of the e-poll.
NV D1- Dina Titus (D) 50%, Joyce Bentley (R) 20%, 26% undecided (n=121, +/-9.2%)
NV D2- Mark Amodei (R) 23%, Clint Koble (D) 16%, 61% undecided (n=169, +/-7.8%)
NV D3- Susie Lee (D) 41%, Danny Tarkanian (R) 39%, 18% undecided (n=178, +/-7.6%)
NV D4- Steven Horsford (D) 36%, Cresent Hardy (R) 34%, 23% undecided (n=157, +/-8.1%)
Also, from the Granite State, Emerson e-Poll results in New Hampshire are: Governor Chris Sununu (R) 51%, Molly Kelly (D) 35%, with 14% undecided. The statewide poll was of likely voters, Oct 10-12, n=788, +/-3.7%.
Sununu is very popular with a 56% favorable and 25% unfavorable opinion. Opinions on the incumbent GOP governor’s opponent, Molly Kelly, are more split, with a 36% favorable and 35% unfavorable opinion. Sununu leads with Independents 51% to 31%.
The e-Poll also asked about the US Congressional races in New Hampshire. Remember, these smaller subsets carry with them larger margins of error. Here are the results of the e-poll in New Hampshire
NH D1- Chris Pappas (D) 40%, Eddie Edwards (R) 35%, 24% undecided (n=387, +/-5.2%)
NH D2- Ann McLane Kuster (D) 44%, Steve Negron (R) 25%, 28% undecided (n=401, +/-5.2%)
In the first district, Pappas has a slight lead among independents, with 39% compared to 27% for Edwards. Women in the district also break for Pappas, 43% to 28%, and men in the district favor Edwards, 42% to 37%.
The Nevada and New Hampshire Emerson College e-Polls were conducted October 10-12, 2018 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters who said they were very likely to vote, NV n=625, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 4.2 percentage points; NH n=788, CI of +/-3.7 percentage points. The NV data was weighted by ethnicity, party affiliation, age, 2016 presidential model, and congressional district/region; NH data was weighted by gender, party affiliation, age, and 2016 presidential model. It is important to remember that subsets carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by SSI.
Emerson College Polling Weekly is the official podcast for the Emerson College poll.